There Will Never Be A Hard Border

UPDATE: Irish Government Minister appears to let the cat out of the bag that checks away from the land border would work... https://t.co/smTPh6MClz

— Euro Guido (@EuroGuido) December 20, 2018

As I have noted many times before, the myth of a hard border and the nonsense of the backstop is utter bollocks.

THERE WILL BE NO HARD BORDER!

European Commission Implements “no-deal” Contingency Action Plan - There Will NOT Be Chaos!

Brexit: European Commission implements “no-deal” Contingency Action Plan in specific sectors

Brussels, 19 December 2018

The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 100 days' time.

Given the continued uncertainty in the UK surrounding the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, as agreed between the EU and the UK on 25 November 2018 – and last week's call by the European Council (Article 50) to intensify preparedness work at all levels and for all outcomes – the European Commission has today started implementing its “no deal” Contingency Action Plan. This delivers on the Commission's commitment to adopt all necessary “no deal” proposals by the end of the year, as outlined in its second preparedness Communication of 13 November 2018.
Today's package includes 14 measures in a limited number of areas where a "no-deal" scenario would create major disruption for citizens and businesses in the EU27. These areas include financial services, air transport, customs, and climate policy, amongst others.
The Commission considers it essential and urgent to adopt these measures today to ensure that the necessary contingency measures can enter into application on 30 March 2019 in order to limit the most significant damage caused by a "no-deal" scenario in these areas.
These measures will not – and cannot – mitigate the overall impact of a "no-deal" scenario, nor do they in any way compensate for the lack of stakeholder preparedness or replicate the full benefits of EU membership or the terms of any transition period, as provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement. They are limited to specific areas where it is absolutely necessary to protect the vital interests of the EU and where preparedness measures on their own are not sufficient. As a rule, they will be temporary in nature, limited in scope and adopted unilaterally by the EU. They take into account discussions with Member States and are in addition to the preparedness measures that have already been taken, as set out in the two previous preparedness Communications.
The Commission will continue to implement its Contingency Action Plan in the weeks to come and will monitor the need for additional action, as well as continue to support Member States in their preparedness work.
Putting citizens' rights first: right to stay and social security coordination
The Commission has consistently put citizens first throughout these negotiations and throughout its "no-deal" preparedness and contingency work. Today's Communication invites Member States to take a generous approach to the rights of UK citizens in the EU, provided that this approach is reciprocated by the UK.
In particular, Member States should take measures to ensure that UK citizens legally residing in the EU on the date of withdrawal will continue to be considered legal residents. Member States should adopt a pragmatic approach to granting temporary residence status. It is recalled that the Commission has already adopted a proposal for a Regulation which exempts UK nationals from visa requirements, provided that all EU citizens are equally exempt from UK visa requirements.
As regards social security coordination, the Commission considers it necessary that Member States take all possible steps to ensure legal certainty and to protect the rights acquired by EU27 citizens and UK nationals who exercised their right to free movement before 30 March 2019.
Sector-specific regulation
Financial services
After a thorough examination of the risks linked to a no deal scenario in the financial sector, the Commission has found that only a limited number of contingency measures is necessary to safeguard financial stability in the EU27.
The Commission has therefore adopted today the following acts:

• A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 12 months to ensure that there will be no immediate disruption in the central clearing of derivatives.
• A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 24 months to ensure that there will be no disruption in central depositaries services for EU operators currently using UK operators.
• Two Delegated Regulations facilitating novation, for a fixed period of 12 months, of certain over-the-counter derivatives contracts, where a contract is transferred from a UK to an EU27 counterparty.

Transport
The Commission has today adopted two measures that will avoid full interruption of air traffic between the EU and the UK in the event of no deal. These measures will only ensure basic connectivity and in no means replicate the significant advantages of membership of the Single European Sky. This is subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring conditions of fair competition.

• A proposal for a Regulation to ensure temporarily (for 12 months) the provision of certain air services between the UK and the EU.
• A proposal for a Regulation to extend temporarily (for 9 months) the validity of certain aviation safety licences.

The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a Regulation to allow UK operators to temporarily (nine months) carry goods into the EU, provided the UK confers equivalent rights to EU road haulage operators and subject to fair competition conditions.
Customs and the export of goods
In a no deal scenario, all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK. The Commission has today adopted the following technical measures:

• A Delegated Regulation to include the seas surrounding the UK in the provisions on time-limits within which entry summary declarations and pre-departure declarations have to be lodged prior to leaving or entering the Union's customs territory.
• A proposal for a Regulation to add the UK to the list of countries for which a general authorisation to export dual use items is valid throughout the EU.

It is essential, however, that Member States take all the necessary steps to be in a position to apply the Union Customs Code and the relevant rules regarding indirect taxation in relation to the United Kingdom.
EU climate policy
The Commission has today adopted the following acts in the area of EU climate legislation in order to ensure that a "no-deal" scenario does not affect the smooth functioning and the environmental integrity of the Emissions Trading System.

• A Commission Decision to suspend temporarily for the UK the free allocation of emissions allowances, auctioning, and the exchange of international credits with effect from 1 January 2019.
• An Implementing Decision to allow an appropriate annual quota allocation to UK companies for accessing the EU27 market (until 31 December 2020).
• An Implementing Regulation to ensure that the reporting by companies differentiates between the EU market and the UK market to allow a correct allocation of quotas in the future.

PEACE Programme
The Commission has today reiterated its commitment to ensuring the current programmes between the border counties of Ireland and Northern Ireland can continue in all scenarios. Given its importance, the Commission has today made a proposal for a Regulation to continue the PEACE programme in Northern Ireland until the end of 2020, in the event of a no deal scenario. As for the period after 2020, the Commission has already proposed as part of its proposals for the next Multi-annual Financial Framework to continue and strengthen cross-border support for peace and reconciliation in the border counties of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Other
The Commission has also adopted a Delegated Regulation on the listing of the UK in statistics on the balance of payments, international trade in services and foreign direct investment.

Next steps
The Commission calls on the European Parliament and the Council to ensure the adoption of the proposed legislative acts so that they are in force by 29 March 2019. The Commission also highlights to the European Parliament and the Council that it is important for delegated acts to enter into force as rapidly as possible. For Delegated Acts, the normal scrutiny period by the European Parliament and Council is, as a rule, two to three months (two months for the Delegated Regulation on summary declarations and pre-departure declarations; three months for the Delegated Regulation on the listing of the UK in EU statistics; a maximum of three months for the Delegated Regulations on certain types of contracts, including over-the-counter derivatives. For more information on the minimum timelines for adoption of such legal acts, see here under Annex 5. Delegated acts can enter into force earlier if the European Parliament and the Council both inform the Commission, before the end of the scrutiny period, that they will not object to the act.

Background
On 14 November 2018, the negotiators of the Commission and the United Kingdom agreed on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement. On 22 November 2018, the Commission approved the completed Withdrawal Agreement. On 25 November 2018, the European Council (Article 50) endorsed the Withdrawal Agreement and invited the Commission, the European Parliament and the Council to take the necessary steps to ensure that the agreement can enter into force on 30 March 2019 to provide for an orderly withdrawal.
On 5 December 2018, the Commission adopted two proposals for Council decisions on the signature and conclusion of the Withdrawal Agreement. For the Withdrawal Agreement to enter into force the Council must now authorise the signature of the text on behalf of the Union and the European Parliament must then give its consent before being concluded by the Council. The Withdrawal Agreement will have to be ratified by the United Kingdom, in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
The ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement continues to be the objective and priority of the Commission. As emphasised in the Commission's first Brexit preparedness Communication of 19 July 2018, irrespective of the scenario envisaged, the United Kingdom's choice to leave the European Union will cause significant disruption.
Stakeholders, as well as national and EU authorities, therefore need to prepare for two possible main scenarios:

• If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified before 30 March 2019, EU law will cease to apply to and in the UK on 1 January 2021, i.e. after a transition period of 21 months.
• If the Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified before 30 March 2019, there will be no transition period and EU law will cease to apply to and in the UK as of 30 March 2019. This is referred to as the "no deal" or "cliff-edge" scenario.

Over the past year, the Commission has published 78 sector-specific preparedness notices to inform the public about the consequences of the UK's withdrawal in the absence of any Withdrawal Agreement. These are available in all official EU languages. The Commission has also held technical discussions with the EU27 Member States both on general issues of preparedness and on specific sectorial, legal and administrative preparedness steps. The slides used in these technical seminars are available online.

No Deal Planning Accelerates

Commissioner Dombrovskis says no deal plans being sped up 'given continued uncertainty in UK surrounding ratification of Withdrawal Agreement'. Says they'll 'turn an abrupt exit into a softer landing' but 'can't replicate benefits of WA and certainly not benefits of membership.'

— Nick Gutteridge (@nick_gutteridge) December 19, 2018

The Post Brexit Sunlit Uplands Beckon

EXCLUSIVE

Geoffrey Cox allegedly told ministers that PM must be 'removed' from office after Brexit so others can 'take over' and renegotiate dealhttps://t.co/fUCsg1nosB

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) December 16, 2018

Absolutely Nebulous!

👀

Theresa May: "What did you call me? You called me nebulous. Yes, you did. nebulous. Nebulous, yes you did."

Mr Juncker replied: "No I didn't, I didn't."pic.twitter.com/2AH9u5dNtf

— Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) December 14, 2018

No U Turns From The EU - As Expected!

Times 9am

EU humiliates May with refusal to budgehttps://t.co/8h1rpoWAkC

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) December 14, 2018

The Backstop

The so called "backstop" (and the alleged "dangers" of it) is a red herring, conjured up by those with an axe to grind.

Even at the height of the Troubles, with checkpoints and guard posts etc, there was no genuine "hard border" it was in  fact as leaky as hell.

Those in the EU who imagine a Backstop designed to prevent the so called "hard border" is necessary, lest a "hard border" split the island of Ireland into two separate camps, are deluding themselves and everyone else.

Those in the ERG and DUP who regard the Backstop as some kind of betrayal of Brexit/the Union are also deluded, given that a Backstop is merely an administrative sop designed to placate the bureaucrats who (for their own reasons) are sitting on their hands instead of putting a red line through it and giving Northern Ireland a special trading "let out clauses" wrt customs issues.

Ignore the Backstop and ignore these people!

By The Power of Grayskull!

Here is @lloyd_rm grabbing the mace just now pic.twitter.com/SEUEWz5w3F

— Daniel Kraemer (@dcakraemer) December 10, 2018

May NOT Pulling Meaningful Vote?

Cabinet conference call at 11.30 - No 10 spokesperson says 'vote going ahead'

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 10, 2018

May To Pull Meaningful Vote?

It looks as though the 11.30 emergency cabinet conference call is for pulling the meaningful vote.

Article 50 Is Revocable

BREAKING: European Court of Justice rules UK could unilaterally revoke notification of its intention to leave EU.

— Olly Barratt (@ollybarratt) December 10, 2018

There Is No "Happy" Solution To Brexit

It is worth remembering that no matter what Britain ends up doing wrt Brexit eg:

-accept the deal
-leave without a deal
-hold another referendum
-stay
-opt for Canada or Norwegian type scenarios

Many millions of people in Britain will not be happy with the outcome. It is at that point that the country will need a government and Prime Minister that can lead it, unify it and plan for the future.

At the moment we do not have such a government or Prime Minister!

It's Happening Next Tuesday...Or Is It?

a Number 10 aide has just clarified the PM's vague remarks:

"The vote takes place on Tuesday. The vote is taking place on Tuesday, that’s where we are. It’s happening next Tuesday." https://t.co/OW0NvMs2r2

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) December 6, 2018

Iain Martin Nails It!

If the UK is unprepared for no deal, why did the PM who said a no deal outcome was better than a bad deal fail to prepare for no deal?

— Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) December 5, 2018

Ditching The PM Won't Resolve The Brexit Issue

Brexit crisis latest: 1. Mood hardening among Tory loyalists for May to resign next week if/when she loses meaningful vote. One minister: “There is a feeling after Tuesday’s disaster that she has well and truly run out of road".https://t.co/GWwjkOmnpd

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) December 5, 2018

Whoever/whatever comes after May, even if it is "government of national unity" (whatever that means), he/she/it won't be able to resolve the Brexit problem. The country and the political parties are not agreed on what should be done.

The Betrayal of Britain

Mervyn King, former Bank of England Governor, lets rip about Theresa May's Brexit deal in an article for Bloomberg, saying it is a 'betrayal of Britain'

'When Tony Blair & Boris Johnson unite in condemnation, something has gone badly wrong'https://t.co/vnDbZPTrM8

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) December 4, 2018

"If this deal is not abandoned, I believe that the U.K. will end up abrogating it unilaterally — regardless of the grave damage that would do to Britain’s reputation and standing. Vassal states do not go gently into that good night. They rage. If this parliament bequeaths to its successors the choice between a humiliating submission and the abrogation of a binding international treaty, it will not be forgiven — and will not deserve to be."

Brexit Won't Impact Security Cooperation

MI6 ‘will always work with our sister agencies to strengthen our indispensable security ties with Europe’, Chief says. UK agencies have played ‘an important contribution’ in helping European countries, particularly France and Germany, prevent terrorist attacks

— Gordon Corera (@gordoncorera) December 3, 2018

Trump Vindicated

EXCLUSIVE: @BrexitCentral has just published the House of Commons' confidential legal note on the Withdrawal Agreement which was leaked to us. It vindicates Trump's latest claim, contradicts the PM and adds to Brexiteers' concerns in numerous areas... https://t.co/dxhtjEMiWU

— Jonathan Isaby (@isaby) December 2, 2018

No More!

Secret Blueprint To Allow The UK To Unilaterally Abandon The Backstop - Blocked By May

Exclusive

We reveal the secret blueprint drawn up mid negotiations by Theresa May’s Brexit adviser Olly Robbins to allow Britain to unilaterally abandon the backstophttps://t.co/TmICToyj8j

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) November 29, 2018

Oh Dear God! - Quisling Alert

“I, and the Government have negotiated on behalf of the European Unio-eh-United Kingdom,” Freudian slip and a half from the PM this morning pic.twitter.com/tII5zq00BE

— Darren Grimes (@darrengrimes_) November 29, 2018

Remainers' Mass Debate Shambles

Here's where we are on Brexit TV debates chaos:

No 10 wants BBC to host. They have pitched an audience of 'interested parties' - ie SNP, DUP, business leaders - on Sun 9th Dec rather than public.

Labour wants ITV to host at 7pm on Sun - bigger audience, more labour voters

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 29, 2018

The public don't want to see these two remainers score points off each other.

Second Referendum? Never! Never! Never!

DUP leader Arlene Foster: “We won’t vote for another referendum.”

— Laura Hughes (@Laura_K_Hughes) November 29, 2018

Other Than Wrecking Things, Labour Doesn't Actually Have a Plan

New: Labour has tabled its big amendment to the meaningful vote.
It aims to do three things:
1. Reject the PM’s Brexit deal
2. Prevent no deal Brexit
3. Keep all options on the table/pursue all options to stop no deal Brexit

— Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) November 28, 2018

Corbyn and May To Mass Debate Next Week

Hearing that Brexit TV head-to-head between May and Corbyn is now scheduled for next week.

It will be an hour long and broadcasters are offering a prime time slot. Negotiations are ongoing...

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 29, 2018

Project Fear II - The Bank of England Speaks

Numbers from the Bank in full here... https://t.co/QnqwT1Qxlv

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 28, 2018

Hammond Gives May's Deal a "Ringing" Endorsement

"Remaining in the EU would be a better outcome for the economy, but not by much" - Chancellor Philip Hammond says Theresa May's #Brexit deal "is very close" to the economic benefits of being in the EUhttps://t.co/I8tGIezoYM pic.twitter.com/JXg4DhHMGP

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) November 28, 2018

To be fair, May thinks Hammond's forecasts are bollocks!

Project Fear II - May's Deal Is The least Worst Option (Allegedly)

SCOOP: No10’s new Brexit grid, seen by me:
Nov 28: Economy
Nov 29: Security
Nov 30: Int trade
Dec 1: Digital
Dec 2: The Brexit deal
Dec 3: Money
Dec 4: Immigration
Dec 5: Transport
Dec 6: Industrial strategy
Dec 7: Brexit for the whole UK
Dec 8: Consumers
Dec 9:
Dec 10: Ag & fish

— Tom McTague (@TomMcTague) November 28, 2018

Trying to sell something as being the least worst option (other than staying in the EU) really is not the greatest marketing strategy, neither is borrowing from Project Fear's failed playbook.

People are capable of achieving great things, and enduring all sorts of hardships if they see a bright future and if the person leading them inspires them with hope, confidence and courage.

Methinks May will lose big time.

Trump Nixes Brexit Deal

DONALD TRUMP ON PM's BREXIT DEAL:

'Sounds like a great deal for the EU, I think we have to take a look seriously about whether or not the UK is allowed to trade.

'Right now if you look at the deal they may not be able to trade with the US. I don't think they want that at all'

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 26, 2018

May's Desire To Mass Debate!

Monday's Daily Telegraph front page: 'May seeks Corbyn TV debate on deal' #TomorrowsPaperToday pic.twitter.com/ZjYsmsv9pl

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) November 25, 2018

Reality Check

THIS ISN'T BREXIT!

Macron Pisses In The Drinking Well

Yup - this is least helpful thing any of EU leaders have said today when they have been for the most part, remarkably on script https://t.co/Kzb5PYyJAY

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 25, 2018

Politics is Everything to Her, This is Her Life.

May may well pull this off!

The EU Doesn't Like The Deal - There's Irony For You!

Have to say this is very much NOT how the deal is seen here in Brussels. There is pretty much no gloating or feeling of victory. Just spoke to one senior diplomat whose verdict, to coin a famous phrase, was that the Member States didn't like it, but they had to go along with it. pic.twitter.com/7dRAaktrRL

— Nick Gutteridge (@nick_gutteridge) November 22, 2018

The Rising Sun Approaches

😮🤗🙌🤛💪
Shinzo Abe rising over the horizon. The leaked grid lives again https://t.co/qIPfduExHm

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) November 22, 2018

Utterly Meaningless..

EU/UK Political declaration

- 26 pages with something for everything, but nothing in stone
- It underlines how little has been decided 2.5 years after triggering article 50.
- The non-committal verbs seems more important than the nouns to which they refer pic.twitter.com/LOyeLhIcee

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) November 22, 2018

It Will Be Deep and Flexible

Moggy's Nanny will hate it!

Almost There..Until The British Parliament Rejects It!

I have just sent to EU27 a draft Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between EU and UK. The Commission President has informed me that it has been agreed at negotiators’ level and agreed in principle at political level, subject to the endorsement of the Leaders.

— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) November 22, 2018

May Told Her Deal Won't Fly

Exclusive:

A blow-by-blow account of last week's Cabinet meeting that brought PM to brink:

* Jeremy Hunt warned Brexit deal cld see UK fall into 'Turkey trap'

* Penny Mordaunt said deal will leave UK in 'paddling pool' rather than 'open sea'https://t.co/uuAllMIq5K

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 21, 2018

Grin and Bear It!

Theresa May has arrived in Brussels. Her handshake with Jean-Claude Juncker lasted all of 10 seconds and neither of them said a word. pic.twitter.com/JslR8yS3cb

— Nick Gutteridge (@nick_gutteridge) November 21, 2018

It Won't Be Britain That Ditches The Deal

Summit could be called off. Germany and France not on same page I hear. What a disaster for May if #EUCO is cancelledhttps://t.co/jSPHDv3sjF

— Bruno Waterfield (@BrunoBrussels) November 21, 2018

John Major's Spitting Image Puppet Appears Next To Moggy (On His Left)

The Netherlands Great No Deal Bill

Are the Dutch breaking rank?

Dutch government has proposed a "Great No Deal bill" which gives the government powers to take emergency measures related to social security, recognition of UK drivers licenses & professional qualifications.@pmdfoster

/1https://t.co/7Hfbhp33WE

— Rem Korteweg (@remkorteweg) November 20, 2018

That's a very good point, our EU chums need to still be able to interact with us even with no deal. So they will have to to make it seamless, irrespective of deal or no deal!

— Ken Frost (@ken_frost) November 20, 2018

This is what Barnier et al don't want you to know, EU states will need to interact with us and will ensure they can in the event of no deal!

May's "Secret" Plan To Solve The Irish Question

Excl: Revealed - Theresa May’s secret plan to scrap the Irish backstop to win round angry Brexiteers. EU has agreed to allow “alternative arrangements” to keep the border open IF she can prove max fac works (it’s a big if).https://t.co/xMmCJnv7mM

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) November 19, 2018

A not very "secret" plan given that it's been published in the Sun, and if the plan is so good/viable why does she want it kept "secret"?

What Happens Next

What happens next?... pic.twitter.com/E1qaG85jr2

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) November 19, 2018

Operation Bullshit

Is David Davis about to submit a letter of no confidence in Theresa May?

He's told Bloomberg over 40 letters have been submitted. 'It seems to be teetering close to getting over the 48'

Asked if he's submitted a letter, he's circumspect. 'The first person to hear will be her'

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 19, 2018

As Brady noted the other day, just because an MP says that he/she has submitted (or will submit) a letter doesn't necessarily mean that they have/will.

How come?

MPs are liars!

Ranil Jayawardena (PPS at the Ministry of Justice) Has Gone

Ranil Jayawardena quits post as a parliamentary private secretary in Ministry of Justice, telling PM her draft #Brexit deal "does not deliver a good and fair Brexit"

For the latest reaction and updates: https://t.co/x82eDksQEU pic.twitter.com/fVvXKRTLXW

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) November 15, 2018

Gove Offered Poison Chalice

BREAKING

Michael Gove has been offered the job of Brexit Secretary, sources confirm.

But he's still wrestling with whether he will stay on at all in the wake of Raab's resignation. Which will it be?

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 15, 2018

Smooth and Orderly

Theresa May says she respects the views of Dominic Raab and Esther McVey, who've quit her Cabinet https://t.co/XbbM0ZrpfF

MPs laughed as she said Brexit could still be delivered in a "smooth and orderly way": pic.twitter.com/tgFrs5cDyF

— Bloomberg (@business) November 15, 2018

Anne-Marie Trevelyan (PPS to the Education Ministers to the Prime Minister) Has Gone

It is with sadness that I have submitted my letter of resignation as PPS to the Education Ministers to the Prime Minister. It has been a joy and a privilege to have served in defence and education. pic.twitter.com/AWlMXNxtT0

— Anne-Marie Trevelyan (@annietrev) November 15, 2018

Suella Braverman (Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at Department for Exiting the European Union) Has Gone..No I Hadn't Heard of Her Either!

It is with deep regret and after reflection that I have had to tender my resignation today as a Brexit Minister. Thank you for the opportunity. I look forward to working to support Brexit from the Backbenches. This has not been an easy decision. pic.twitter.com/C0kply8aLE

— Suella Braverman MP (@SuellaBraverman) November 15, 2018

McVey Has Gone

Earlier this morning I informed the Prime Minister I was resigning from her Cabinet pic.twitter.com/ZeBkL5n2xH

— Esther McVey (@EstherMcVey1) November 15, 2018

The Odd Couple

Theresa May is meeting Corbyn, in order to get his party's support for her deal as her party won't back her.

Shailesh Vara (Northern Ireland Minister) Has Gone

Absolutely brutal resignation letter from Shailesh Vara: “We are a proud nation and it is a sad day when we are reduced to obeying rules made by other countries who have shown that they do not have our best interests at heart. We can and must do better than this."

— Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) November 15, 2018

With much sadness and regret I have submitted my letter of resignation as a Northern Ireland Minister to the Prime Minister. A copy of my letter is attached.
It has been a joy and privilege to serve in the Northern Ireland Office and I will always cherish the fondest memories. pic.twitter.com/SN8j4OwhYD

— Shailesh Vara MP (@ShaileshVara) November 15, 2018

Raab Has Gone

Today, I have resigned as Brexit Secretary. I cannot in good conscience support the terms proposed for our deal with the EU. Here is my letter to the PM explaining my reasons, and my enduring respect for her. pic.twitter.com/tf5CUZnnUz

— Dominic Raab (@DominicRaab) November 15, 2018

Bring On Mr Blobby To Sort This Mess Out!

Well this is honestpic.twitter.com/dOYTT3iffd

— Marcel Dirsus (@marceldirsus) November 13, 2018

Reality Check

Article 50 was signed on 28 March 2017, since then what the fuck have we achieved wrt planning for our post Brexit existence?

FUCK ALL, THAT'S WHAT!

May Seems To Have Thrown The DUP Under The Bus

Exclusive:

What does PM's backstop look like?

Geoffrey Cox told Cabinet NI will be in a 'different regulatory regime' & 'subject to EU law & institutions' under PM's deal.

He warned plans may ‘cross a line’ for the DUP - which it very clearly has.https://t.co/3zWP2ui9i3

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 13, 2018

D Day..or Is It?

It's all happening.

Hearing that ministers will be called into No 10 on a one by one basis TONIGHT for briefings ahead of emergency Cabinet tomorrow.

A deal is in the offing. Question now is whether the PM can keep Eurosceptic ministers and DUP onside.

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 13, 2018

No 10 statement lands:

Cabinet will meet at 2pm to consider draft agreement and decide on next steps.

For some ministers, those 'next steps' include whether they feel they can stay in Cabinet.

Ripples of uncertainty throughout Westminster tonight...

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 13, 2018

Source confirms divorce deal text agreed at technical level, Cabinet to meet early afternoon tomorrow...might be official confirmation soon

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 13, 2018

The Endgame

Crafted by an Irishman, written in French: why Endgame is indeed apt for the UK Cabinet's deliberations on Brexit. Today's #WaughZonehttps://t.co/m74oVXLWU2 pic.twitter.com/WfwCqFw3lD

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) November 13, 2018

I wonder if Theresa May really understands what she meant by calling this the "endgame"?

Pizza Club Back By Popular Demand

Exclusive:

Pizza club is BACK.

Ministers concerned about customs backstop are tonight gathering for drinks at Liam Fox's office ahead of tomorrow's Cabinet

Those present include Dom Raab, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt and Geoffrey Coxhttps://t.co/TZVN0QmhiK

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 12, 2018

The Ongoing Shitshow

OMG - I was told 300 on Friday - wonder if that is an extra 200 pages of caveats over the weekend ! https://t.co/37LG5ylIKt

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 12, 2018

Brexit, At Least May's Version of Brexit, Is Dead In The Water

Brexit fatigue setting in in Brussels. One source says they have stopped reading British papers(!), because tired of 'cabinet deal imminent'/'cabinet deadlocked' story loop.

— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) November 12, 2018

FCA Warns of Brexit Scam Risk

The Financial Conduct Authority has warned that it is expecting more scams “during this period of uncertainty” (ie Brexit), and warned consumers not to give over their personal bank details in phone calls or emails purportedly from their lender.

May Preparing To Shaft The DUP

Worth reading in full https://t.co/GsaJd5Zw0W

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 9, 2018

Raab Demonstrates His "Understanding" of Trade Flows

Dominic Raab: "I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this but... we're particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing"

Labour accuses #Brexit secretary of not knowing "the very basics" after speech on trade

More: https://t.co/sJySjzmx3M

[tap video to expand] pic.twitter.com/RteA7dTJZn

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 8, 2018

FFS!

UK MAY ASK BRUSSELS MORE TIME TO CUT BREXIT DEAL W/CABINET: SUN

As I said no deal

— MineForNothing (@minefornothing) November 8, 2018

Draft Brexit Agreement On The Table

BREAKING: Cabinet ministers have been invited to read a copy of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement this afternoon. Emergency Cabinet meeting to sign it off set to happen either tomorrow or Monday, say Whitehall sources.

— Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) November 7, 2018

The Brexit Grid

I see that the Tories have taken a leaf out of Blair's Labour government, and have adopted the concept of "the grid"!

Brexit Communications Grid Summary

Cabinet reviews the deal this Tuesday, the 6th November. They expect all the details to then leak.
"A moment of decisive progress" will be announced this Thursday. Raab to announce.

The narrative is going to be measured success, that this is good for everyone, but won't be all champagne corks popping.

Then there's recess until 12th.

After the announcement of decisive progress there follows the 10 days of Sherpa meetings with EU 27 and then daily themed announcements.

19th November - "We have delivered on the referendum" PM speaks at the CBI conference.
Saying this deal brings the country back together, now is the time for us all to unite behind it for the good of all our futures etc. She will also hold a business reception.

This is the day both the Withdrawal Agreement and Future Framework will be put to Parliament by way of a statement from Raab who will also do media. Junior ministers are doing regional media all day. Government lining up 25 top business voices including Carolyn Fairburn and lots of world leaders eg Japanese PM to tweet support for the deal.

20th - Theme is Delivering for the Whole of the UK - PM to visit the north and or Scotland and the Commons will debate in business motions the date of the Meaningful Vote.

PM will be back in the house to vote. The Cabinet Office publishes its explainer of the deal and what it means for the public, comparing it to No Deal, but not to our current deal.

Other business leaders to come out and back it eg Adam Marshall from Chambers of Commerce and supportive voices in devolved regions like Andy Street and Andy Burnham. Also hoping to get 3rd Sector voices out supporting it.

21st - Theme is Economy, Jobs, Customs. Philip Hammond to open debate in Commons and Raab to close it. Institute of Directors to speak out.

Hoping for Stephen Martin, Martin McTeague etc

22nd - Theme is immigration - take back control of our borders. Home Sec doing media and visits. Raab on QT in the West mids.

Hope Mike Hawes of SMMT will speak out in favour along with influential voices from the rest of the world saying how great this is for the flow of global talent.

23rd - Theme is money - NHS funding and structural funds. Matt Hancock hospital visit. David Everett to welcome the deal alongside Tech for UK.

24th Theme is Northern Ireland and The Union - no hard border in the UK and the integrity of the Union is protected. PM visits border communities and business in NI and maybe also to Wales to visit agri and export businesses. Karen Bradley doing media.

Trying to get Varadker to support and Anand Menon and Henry Newman too.

25th - Theme is global Britain. We can strike trade deals with RoW (rest of world) security in this one too.

Speech from Liam Fox. Jeremy Hunt on Marr. Hope Miles Celic to come out in support (City UK).
Lining up lots of former foreign secs to come out in support and Mark Littlewood of the IEA.

26th - theme is taking back control of our laws, Raab doing media. PM interview with Dimbleby.

27th - morning theme is agri and fisheries. Gove doing a visit and media.

Evening is the vote. HISTORIC MOMENT, PUT YOUR OWN INTERESTS ASIDE, PUT THE COUNTRY'S INTERESTS FIRST AND BACK THIS DEAL.

Free Movement To Continue Under No Deal

EU free movement 'to continue under no-deal Brexit' https://t.co/W4YxANQSqA

— Sky News Politics (@SkyNewsPolitics) November 5, 2018

It is fair to say the the Home Office doesn't know what the fuck it is doing!

It is also fair to remind you all the the Home Office was once the fiefdom of the PM!

LOL!

Thanks for all the kind words, this is indeed me! pic.twitter.com/FsEfKo8LyF

— Harriet (@harrietlucyel) November 5, 2018

Project Fear Was Bollocks

Was sitting on a flight to Delhi w/ an investment banker from one of the top firms - had plenty of time to discuss Brexit. I was amused, not surprised, to learn that he, & as he confessed, most of his colleagues and fellow investment bankers in the City are all for a hard Brexit. https://t.co/MxluGw1BP3

— VeronicaM (@V5M1000) November 4, 2018

Raab's Optimism of Yesterday Appears To Be Misplaced

European Commission Spokesman: We Cannot At This Stage Confirm When Next Meeting Be-tween EU’s Barnier And UK’s Raab Will Take Place
-European Commission Wants To Reach a Deal With Britain On Orderly Withdrawal From The EU

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 1, 2018

Deal Done 21 November?

NEW: Dominic Raab says he expects Brexit deal to be finalised before November 21. pic.twitter.com/cNadMHzVC9

— Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) October 31, 2018

Number 10 is playing this down, doubtless because they want the glory of announcing it!

Davis Recants

For the avoidance of doubt I believe the PM will get a deal with the EU but anything based on the Chequers plan or one that keeps us in the Customs Union will not pass the Commons. Time to revert to free trade deal suggested by EU?

— David Davis (@DavidDavisMP) October 31, 2018

Reality Dawns In The EU Bunker

If EU is ready to offer this temporarily for financial services then farmers, growers, truckers will surely be clamouring for the same arrangement at ports https://t.co/KFJlpViZRe

— James Rothwell (@JamesERothwell) October 30, 2018

May Way or No Way!

🚨DD says May will get a deal through EU and Parliament: “Terror will win. The fear of no deal, the irrational fear of no deal, will win. It may take two passes. But it will pass.”

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) October 30, 2018

Osborne Admits Project Fear Was Bollocks

Osborne says it was wrong to play into sense that Brussels was always wrong and not to talk up positives of immigration #Newsnight - you may be able to hear others involved in Remain campaign at the time banging their heads on brick walls

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 30, 2018

Osborne and co were warned at the time the Project fear would backfire, but they failed toheed those warnings because of their arrogance.

People Want Brexit, But Not May's Version of Brexit

As per Guido Fawkes a poll carried out by Deltapoll shows that only 26% of people want Brexit to be abandoned altogether.

However there is scant support for May’s current Brexit approach either, with 14% saying she should “go back to the drawing board and come up with a more acceptable plan” and 22% in favour of her leaving without a deal rather than making any more concessions to the EU.

Only 10% support her pressing ahead with Chequers.

No Deal Means Extra Budget

#PhilipHammond: No-deal #Brexit would require new #Budget.https://t.co/8MpFPgIvVn #Budget2018

— Grunberg and Co (@GrunbergandCo) October 29, 2018

I have no doubt that No Deal would mean an extra Budget. That would be a "give away" Budget as Hammond would need to prime the pumps to keep everything financially afloat.

I guess that's what May meant when she said austerity was over!

French Debunk Project Fear

It’s come to something when the French are having to debunk scaremongering from our own politicians. https://t.co/EsxgYSu8BS

— Christopher Snowdon (@cjsnowdon) October 26, 2018

There's Irony For You!

Ireland holding referendum today to decriminalise blasphemy as ECHR criminalises religious defamation

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) October 26, 2018

Carry On Brexiting Forever!

EXCLUSIVE

** Times sees cabinet papers revealing next stage of brexit Plan
** Brexit transition WILL last for years under TM’s Plan officials say. They warn of “long-running” multi-year transition
** Plan A WILL involve NI in separate VAT area. Officials admit “uncomfortable”. https://t.co/uyJkKoocB2

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) October 23, 2018

UK MEPs Checking Their Redundancy Arrangements

Brexit getting very real for UK MEPs - they’re currently in an hour and a half meeting with EU officials about their redundancy arrangements

— Luke James (@LEJ88) October 23, 2018

One good thing from Brexit, we won't have any more MEPs.

Before you all howl in protest, how many of you know the name of your MEP?

No, I thought not!!!

Brexit Boost For May From Labour

Big Brexit boost for Theresa May on a difficult day. 'Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal, Doncaster MP Caroline Flint claims' By @singharj

— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) October 24, 2018

I will believe it when I see it!

To put this into context, the journalist claimed a few days ago that David Davis was "admired" by some Labour MPs.

Project Fear Was Bollocks!

Before Referendum (March 2016), OBR forecast £21bn deficit for 2018/19.
After Ref (Nov 2016) f/cast rose to £46bn.
By 2018 Spring statement, f/cast still £37bn.
In Mon. Budget it will reveal its pre-Ref f/cast was most accurate.
So no Brexit-induced collapse in public finances.

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) October 23, 2018

Brexiteers To Meet Barnier

Seemingly Brexiteers including Owen Paterson, David Trimble and Ian Duncan Smith will meet Michel Barnier in Brussels today, in order to tell him why May's Chequers plan is unworkable.

It has come to this that members of the governing party are now briefing the EU against their own leader!

There Is No Plan

In case anyone is wondering if there is a plan (eg Chequers II, "No Deal" or some variation thereon), there isn't one.

There Will Be NO Hard Border

Juncker & Varadkar Guaranteed to the Irish Parliament No Hard Border in the Event of No Deal https://t.co/aQJQO7Srjf

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) October 18, 2018

The great lie has finally been exposed by the EU and Ireland.

US Shoots EU's Fox

Christopher Giancarlo, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, called the EU plans to amend European Market Infrastructure Regulation “unprecedented and wholly unacceptable” and warned they could create “costly burdensome regulatory requirements” in the US.

Mr Giancarlo said that if the EU did not change the existing plans he would have “no choice” but to select from a wide range of actions that includes barring EU banks from using US financial infrastructure such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Beware The Show of Resistance and a Choreographed Argument

letter yesterday from Boris Johnson, IDS, David Davis, Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg to the prime minister:

“We urge you not to engage in a show of resistance and a choreographed argument followed by surrender and collapse into some version of the backstop and Chequers....” pic.twitter.com/cnHE3jHoTc

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) October 18, 2018

Lithuania Nails Brexit!

Lithuania's Prime Minister: “We need a very concrete understanding what the UK really wants. We do not know what they want, they do not know themselves what they really want - that's the problem.”
In a nutshell.

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) October 18, 2018

US/UK Trade Talks Start One Day After Brexit

Formal talks begin the day "after it exits the European Union on March 29, 2019" #Brexit https://t.co/3WIVzLrk6q

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) October 17, 2018

French Get The Collywobbles!

Châteauneuf Du Pape Rodney! https://t.co/EA4zkmVqKU https://t.co/7KEB7I36Vi

— Ken Frost (@ken_frost) October 16, 2018

On The Brink?

One ERG source tells @Telegraph: “If the Cabinet does not chuck Chequers I think we will have a vote of no confidence … by this week, next week. We are completely on the brink now." https://t.co/4rFKFvgU4R

— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) October 16, 2018

May's Freudian Backstop

PM: “When the UK leaves the United Kingdom... er, the EU...”. The most unfortunate of slips, especially when replying to Nigel Dodds.

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 15, 2018

No Deal Not That Big a Deal!

Open Europe issuing new report today saying a unilaterally mitigated No Deal scenario would still hit the UK economy but not by much, and much much less than anticipated by Treasury and most external economists: https://t.co/j1bVVJtfOU

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 15, 2018

The EU's Misadvised Strategy

Miscalculations on both sides, but the commission built its strategy (advised by ultra-remainers in the UK) that the talks get to this point and the UK folds and allows the de facto break up of the UK via Northern Ireland. Terrible miscalculation.

— Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) October 14, 2018

A Question of Trust

Were Maggie Thatcher alive and handling Brexit, people would trust her to do her best to get as good a deal as possible. Sadly, for us, even if May is doing her best no one trusts her honesty, ability or competence. As such, even with a good deal, she won't be able to sell it!

— Ken Frost (@ken_frost) October 11, 2018

Sadly, for the country and for May, I don't think people trust her to keep her word or to mange this well.

Beware Media Hyperbole

'It's all kicking off' https://t.co/0WJvH5KAsJ

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) October 10, 2018

Theresa May Reaches Out To Ken Frost

Laura Lays Out Brexit Roadmap

1. Today first #pmqs since Salzburg, but really important movement is btw officials behind closed doors this week, shuttling back and forwards btw Brussels and Westminster

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 10, 2018

Sheep Slaughter To Appease The Gods of Brexit

via GIPHY

the sunny uplands sound great pic.twitter.com/x5bDJ8a1jm

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) October 10, 2018

The Brexit Tunnel

Team Barnier told EU ambassadors on Fri they were entering a "tunnel" for 10 days after which they will emerge with "something" on political declaration/withdrawal agreement. It became something of a meme with diplomats variously mocking or riffing on it round the table #tunnel pic.twitter.com/U2n5uZSh0H

— Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) October 8, 2018

Gove's Treasure Hunt

I see the media are using Gove's idea of looking through rubbish (in order to reduce excess waste) as a post Brexit plan.

As amusing as that is, I am pretty sure this isn't anything to do with Brexit.

Unilever To Stay In London

The Remain campaign loved this one. This morning? Not so much.

Unilever scraps plan to move HQ from London after huge investor backlash: Unilever's decision to remain in the FTSE 100 will be seen as a boost for the London stock market: https://t.co/MFMLMhSSGq

— Darren Grimes (@darrengrimes_) October 5, 2018

The Irish Problem Is Now Everyone's Problem

When you boil #Brexit down, a lot of it is about borders...

A thread 👇
A #RealityCheck article 👉https://t.co/yYLcOnn1hu https://t.co/yZ7ewrGoIP

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) October 4, 2018

Italy Stands Up To The EU

Matteo Salvini to the EU: I talk to sober people who don't make false comparisons. The President of the European Commission should drink two glasses of water before opening his mouth to speak—stop spreading nonsense about Italy or we will ask for damages. pic.twitter.com/smTsr3aS5p

— Alana Mastrangelo (@ARmastrangelo) October 2, 2018

Chuck Chequers

‘Chuck Chequers” sounds like an American TV action hero from the 1980s.
pic.twitter.com/Rgf00lq2QE

— James Melville (@JamesMelville) October 2, 2018

Boris To Delay Brexit

Excl: Boris tells senior Tories he would delay Brexit by six months if he can topple Theresa May;https://t.co/3kpP6cKpu0

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 1, 2018